Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential upsets by higher-ranked opponents in the Round of 32
AI updated 6/26/2026, 3:37:16 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
57%
ORYN Consensus
57%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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Will Manifold.love reach 1000 daily active users (7d average) by Feb 14, 2024? is related to Will Cape Verde be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? through uncertainty and unpredictability in both markets, Will the US debt ceiling be raised by the end of June 2023? (M$10,000 subsidy) is related through macroeconomic uncertainty affecting Cape Verde's World Cup performance, Will Sam Altman be the CEO of OpenAI on January 1st 2024? is related through potential AI-related influences on Cape Verde's World Cup performance, Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages? is related through potential propaganda-related influences on Cape Verde's World Cup performance, Will OpenAI become significantly less closed source as a result of the leadership transition? is related through potential AI-related influences on Cape Verde's World Cup performance
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 54-60
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
10
Price history
37 points
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Cape Verde is eliminated. If Cape Verde wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Cape Verde is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Cape Verde based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a 57% chance that Cape Verde will be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. This reflects moderate uncertainty about Cape Verde's ability to advance beyond the initial knockout stage.
Cape Verde could defy expectations by advancing past the Round of 32, leveraging strong team dynamics, strategic gameplay, or favorable draw conditions. Historical underdog performances in recent tournaments (e.g., Morocco in 2022) suggest potential for progression.
Cape Verde may struggle against stronger opponents in the Round of 32, facing challenges like limited squad depth, tactical disadvantages, or high-pressure scenarios. Their recent FIFA rankings (120th as of June 2024) and lack of recent World Cup experience increase elimination risk.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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