Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Erroneous or delayed NPM data updates
Calibrated 100% · raw 950% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:32:16 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
55%
ORYN Consensus
45%
Signal Score
-9.5
Opportunity
7.1
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages? is related to the potential risks and challenges associated with the development and deployment of LLMs, which could impact the valuation of Canva, and
correlates · strength 60%
Will the US debt ceiling be raised by the end of June 2023? (M$10,000 subsidy) is related to the potential impact of economic uncertainty on the valuation of Canva, as a decrease in valuation could be a result of market volatility, and
correlates · strength 60%
Will Manifold.love reach 1000 daily active users (7d average) by Feb 14, 2024? is related to the potential success of Canva's business model, as both are innovative companies seeking to disrupt traditional industries, and
correlates · strength 60%
Will OpenAI become significantly less closed source as a result of the leadership transition? is related to the potential changes in the business model and valuation of OpenAI, which could impact the valuation of Canva as a competitor in the market.
correlates · strength 60%
Will Sam Altman be the CEO of OpenAI on January 1st 2024? is related to the potential leadership transition at OpenAI, which could impact the company's future direction and valuation, and
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -950.0¢
Entry: 52-58
—
Resolution
133d
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
90 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canva's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Canva's valuation hitting $30B by December 31, 2026, is currently at near-even odds (49%), indicating high uncertainty. The outcome hinges on Canva's private market valuation trends, potential IPO, or public market performance, with key risks including market volatility and corporate actions.
Canva's valuation could reach $30B if it achieves sustained revenue growth, expands into new markets (e.g., AI integration), or secures a high-profile IPO with strong investor demand. Private market valuations may rise due to increased adoption of its design tools or strategic acquisitions.
Canva's valuation may fail to hit $30B if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate, competition intensifies (e.g., Adobe, Figma), or its growth slows. A failed IPO or public market underperformance could also drag down valuation, especially if investor sentiment turns negative.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.