Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unexpected global economic slowdown (e.g., China demand drop)
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:30:58 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
44%
ORYN Consensus
42%
Signal Score
-2.0
Opportunity
1.4
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -200.0¢
Entry: 41-47
—
Resolution
Open-ended
Decision snapshots
2
Price history
90 points
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026. The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market suggests a 42% probability that Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) will fall within the 1.2%-1.4% range. This reflects moderate skepticism given Brazil's historical GDP volatility and external economic pressures.
Brazil's economic recovery accelerates due to strong agricultural output, resilient industrial activity, and favorable terms of trade. Fiscal stimulus measures and credit expansion further boost growth, pushing GDP growth toward the upper end of the range (1.3%-1.4%).
Persistent inflationary pressures, monetary tightening, and weaker-than-expected global demand drag on Brazil's growth. Structural issues like fiscal imbalances and political uncertainty weigh on investor confidence, capping growth at the lower end (1.2%-1.25%).
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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