Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Lowe's extensive injury history
Calibrated 100% · raw 550% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/3/2026, 1:19:06 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
8%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
-5.5
Opportunity
4.7
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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Unrelated to individual achievements: @firstuserhere walking 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated to global events: Ivory Coast winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup, Egypt winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup, Iran Nuke before 2027, Will 2023 be the hottest year on record
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,069,667
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -550.0¢
Entry: 4-10
—
Resolution
100d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 50 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Brandon Lowe is a solid power hitter but has never hit more than 39 home runs in a season and is frequently injured. Reaching 50 homers would require a career-best season with full health and a significant power surge, which is highly unlikely given his track record and the pitcher-friendly environment in Tampa Bay. The current 7.5% probability appears too high.
If Lowe stays healthy for 150+ games and benefits from a juiced ball or favorable offensive environment, he could approach 40-45 homers. A perfectly optimized swing and increased launch angle might push him into elite power territory, especially if the Rays' lineup provides ample RBI opportunities.
Lowe has never exceeded 39 homers, and his career-high was three years ago. He is injury-prone, missing significant time each season, and the Rays play in a park that suppresses home runs. The 50-homer threshold is typically reserved for elite sluggers like Judge and Ohtani, far beyond Lowe's realistic ceiling.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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