Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Regulatory uncertainty or negative actions against AVAX
AI updated 7/1/2026, 3:45:23 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
47%
ORYN Consensus
46%
Signal Score
-1.0
Opportunity
0.8
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,230,486
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -100.0¢
Entry: 44-50
—
Resolution
183d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
12 points
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Avalanche (AVAX/USDT) between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the AVAX/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/AVAX_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Only the Binance AVAX/USDT price feed will be used. Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for AVAX reaching $12 by December 31, 2026, currently shows a 45.50% probability, indicating moderate skepticism. The resolution hinges solely on Binance's AVAX/USDT 1-minute candle high prices, excluding other exchanges or trading pairs.
AVAX could reach $12 if strong adoption of Avalanche's subnets and DeFi ecosystem accelerates, coupled with a sustained bull market in crypto. Institutional interest in AVAX as a Layer 1 alternative to Ethereum may also drive price momentum.
AVAX may fail to reach $12 if regulatory crackdowns on crypto or Avalanche-specific issues emerge. Persistent bearish market conditions or competition from other Layer 1 blockchains could suppress price growth.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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