Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: High volatility in AI or crypto markets could lead to sharp price swings
Calibrated 100% · raw 5550% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:09:23 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
40%
ORYN Consensus
95%
Signal Score
+55.5
Opportunity
41.6
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Will Aster reach $1.40 by December 31, 2026? is related to the theme of 'AI/ML Adoption and Maturity', which is also present in related markets such as 'Will Manifold.love reach 1000 daily active users (7d average) by Feb 14, 2024?' and 'Will OpenAI become significantly less closed source as a result of the leadership transition?'; Will Aster reach $1.40 by December 31, 2026? is also related to the theme of 'Economic Performance and Growth', which is also present in related markets such as 'Will the US debt ceiling be raised by the end of June 2023? (M$10,000 subsidy)'; Will Aster reach $1.40 by December 31, 2026? is also related to the theme of 'Leadership and Organization', which is also present in related markets such as 'Will Sam Altman be the CEO of OpenAI on January 1st 2024?'; Will Aster reach $1.40 by December 31, 2026? is also related to the theme of 'National Security and Defense', which is also present in related markets such as 'Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 5550.0¢
Entry: 36-43
—
Resolution
133d
Decision snapshots
8
Price history
90 points
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Aster (ASTER/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 17:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ASTER/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ASTER_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ASTER/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market reflects a 37.5% probability that Aster (ASTER/USDT) will reach or exceed $1.40 by December 31, 2026, based on Binance 1-minute candle highs. This suggests moderate skepticism about Aster's price appreciation within the specified timeframe, given the relatively low implied likelihood.
Aster could surpass $1.40 if it gains significant adoption as an AI-focused token, particularly if major partnerships or integrations are announced. Additionally, broader market bullish trends in crypto or AI sectors could drive price momentum. Strong speculative activity or increased trading volume on Binance may also propel the price upward.
Aster may fail to reach $1.40 if market conditions remain bearish, with low trading volume or declining interest in AI tokens. Regulatory hurdles or negative sentiment toward cryptocurrencies could suppress price growth. Technical resistance at lower price levels may also prevent the token from achieving the target.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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