Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Episode release delays or cancellation
Calibrated 100% · raw 4700% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 1:15:55 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
48%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
-47.0
Opportunity
30.6
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,331,940
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -4700.0¢
Entry: 45-51
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
6 points
Episode 2 of House of the Dragon Season 3 is scheduled to air on June 28, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if anyone says the listed term during the specified episode of House of the Dragon. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person's first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about "Joe / Biden 5+ times," a mention of "Joe Biden" will count once). If this episode of House of the Dragon has not been released in its entirety by June 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has been released up to that point. If no episode has been released by this time, or if the release is otherwise definitively cancelled, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the initial release of the named episode of House of the Dragon. Reruns, re-releases, or transcripts which differ from the initially released episode will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a near-even split (48%) on whether the word 'Surrender' will be spoken in *House of the Dragon* Season 3, Episode 2. The outcome hinges on dialogue intensity and character dynamics, with historical context suggesting moderate likelihood.
The word 'Surrender' is plausible given the show's themes of war, betrayal, and political maneuvering. Characters like Daemon Targaryen or Aemond Targaryen may use the term in a dramatic confrontation, especially if the episode features combat or negotiations.
The term may not appear due to the show's stylistic preference for archaic or poetic language over modern phrasing like 'Surrender.' Historical dramas often avoid contemporary terms, reducing the likelihood of direct usage.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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