Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: episode_runtime_and_pacing
Calibrated 100% · raw 4000% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 1:15:49 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
10%
Signal Score
-40.0
Opportunity
26.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,331,940
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -4000.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
10 points
Episode 2 of House of the Dragon Season 3 is scheduled to air on June 28, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if anyone says the listed term during the specified episode of House of the Dragon. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person's first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about "Joe / Biden 5+ times," a mention of "Joe Biden" will count once). If this episode of House of the Dragon has not been released in its entirety by June 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has been released up to that point. If no episode has been released by this time, or if the release is otherwise definitively cancelled, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the initial release of the named episode of House of the Dragon. Reruns, re-releases, or transcripts which differ from the initially released episode will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a 50% probability that the word 'Mercy' will be spoken in *House of the Dragon* Season 3, Episode 2, based on neutral baseline assumptions about dialogue frequency in the series. The outcome hinges on narrative context, character interactions, and thematic elements typical of the show.
The term 'Mercy' is likely to appear given the show's recurring themes of power, betrayal, and moral dilemmas, which often drive characters to invoke themes of mercy or its absence. Dialogue-heavy episodes, especially in political dramas like *House of the Dragon*, frequently include such terms. The show's creators may deliberately include the word to underscore character arcs or thematic tension.
The word 'Mercy' may not appear if the episode focuses on action-driven sequences or avoids explicit moral discussions. The show's dialogue can be sparse or metaphorical, reducing the likelihood of direct word usage. Historical inaccuracies or anachronistic language constraints might also limit its appearance.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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