Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Last-minute roster changes or player disputes
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/1/2026, 3:16:28 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 42% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
48%
Signal Score
-2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,453,709
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Open-ended
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the region of the team that wins the Grand Final of the 2026 Esports World Cup (EWC) Dota 2 tournament, held July 7–19, 2026 in Paris, France. For the purposes of this market, a team's region is determined by the regional classification listed for that team on its Liquipedia team page (https://liquipedia.net/dota2). Regions are grouped based on the Liquipedia classification at (https://liquipedia.net/dota2/Portal:Teams) If the winning team's Liquipedia regional classification does not fall into any of the six groups above, this market will resolve to the group containing the geographically nearest region, as determined by the team's classification on Liquipedia. The market resolves to the region of the single team that wins the EWC Dota 2 Grand Final (i.e., is awarded 1st place / the championship). If the tournament is cancelled, or is postponed such that no champion is determined by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If there is a tie, this market will resolve to the region that comes first alphabetically. The primary resolution source for this market will be Liquipedia (https://liquipedia.net/dota2/Esports_World_Cup/2026), used both for the official champion and for each team's regional classification. The official EWC website (https://esportsworldcup.com) is the secondary source for the champion. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The Dota EWC 2026 prediction market indicates a 50% chance that a team outside the traditionally dominant regions (China, Europe, North America, CIS, SEA, or Other) will win the Grand Final. Historical trends and current team rosters suggest parity among top-tier regions, but no clear underdog has emerged as a favorite.
A non-traditional region (e.g., Latin America, Middle East, Africa, or Oceania) could win due to rising talent pools, improved infrastructure, and strategic innovations. Regional underdogs may exploit meta shifts or team fatigue among top teams from established regions. The Paris-based tournament could favor teams with regional proximity or travel advantages.
Traditional powerhouses (China, Europe, SEA) are likely to dominate, given their historical success, deeper talent pools, and consistent performance in major tournaments. Logistic challenges (e.g., travel costs, visa issues) may hinder underdog teams from non-traditional regions. The EWC's competitive format may favor established teams with tournament experience.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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