Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury to Simons or key Heat players altering trade calculus
Calibrated 100% · raw 2030% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 11:30:56 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
22%
Signal Score
+20.3
Opportunity
15.2
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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Will Anfernee Simons play for a team in the Eastern Conference in 2026-27?
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Will Anfernee Simons play for a team in the Southeastern United States in 2026-27?
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,069,667
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 2030.0¢
Entry: 0-5
—
Resolution
120d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
17 points
This market will resolve to the next team Anfernee Simons officially joins by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If Anfernee Simons does not officially join a new team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If Anfernee Simons joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other". If Anfernee Simons is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by October 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". An official signing announcement prior to the market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the NBA and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market predicts whether Anfernee Simons will be a member of the Miami Heat for the 2026-27 NBA season by October 31, 2026. Currently at 24% probability, the market reflects moderate skepticism that Simons will land in Miami amid trade speculation and competing suitors.
Miami has long coveted a dynamic scoring guard, and Simons' youth and offensive firepower fit their timeline. Portland may prioritize rebuilding, making Simons available at a reasonable price that Miami could meet with a package of picks and young players.
The Heat's limited trade assets and reluctance to part with core pieces could prevent a deal. Other teams with more cap space or better packages, such as Orlando or San Antonio, may outbid Miami. Simons might also stay in Portland if the Blazers decide to build around him.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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