Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Simons' large contract limits trade flexibility
AI updated 7/3/2026, 1:17:39 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
+0.3
Opportunity
0.2
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
No direct correlation with unrelated individual activities (@firstuserhere walking 100,000 steps)
correlates · strength 60%
Negligible correlation with global events (FIFA World Cup, Iran Nuke, climate records)
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,447,108
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 25.0¢
Entry: 0-5
—
Resolution
119d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
16 points
This market will resolve to the next team Anfernee Simons officially joins by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If Anfernee Simons does not officially join a new team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If Anfernee Simons joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other". If Anfernee Simons is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by October 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". An official signing announcement prior to the market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the NBA and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market gives a 2.05% probability that Anfernee Simons will play for the Lakers in the 2026-27 season. Simons is under contract with the Trail Blazers and would need to be acquired via trade, which faces salary-matching and asset hurdles. The low price reflects the narrow path to a Lakers move.
The Lakers have long pursued a third star and could target Simons as a dynamic scoring guard. If Portland commits to a youth movement around Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe, they may trade Simons, and the Lakers have matching salary (Russell, Vanderbilt) and picks to make a deal.
Simons is a core part of Portland's rotation and under contract through 2027, so the Blazers have no incentive to trade him. His $25M+ salary would require the Lakers to gut their depth, and Los Angeles may prefer other targets or internal development. Injuries and chemistry questions also weigh against a trade.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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