Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Significant injuries to Simons or key Rockets players altering team needs
AI updated 7/2/2026, 9:31:30 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| gemini | — | — | Active |
| fincept | 1 | — | Global only |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 31% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,454,234
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
119d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
25 points
This market will resolve to the next team Anfernee Simons officially joins by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If Anfernee Simons does not officially join a new team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If Anfernee Simons joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other". If Anfernee Simons is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by October 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". An official signing announcement prior to the market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the NBA and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market assesses the likelihood of Anfernee Simons joining the Houston Rockets by the 2026-27 season. With a current market probability of 0.90%, the consensus indicates a very low expectation for this outcome. Simons is currently under contract with the Portland Trail Blazers through the 2025-26 season.
A scenario for Simons joining the Rockets would involve Houston developing significant roster needs at the guard position by 2026 and having the necessary cap space or trade assets. Simons would need to become available, either through a trade from Portland or as an unrestricted free agent, and view Houston as a desirable destination for his career trajectory.
The prevailing bear case, supported by the low market probability, suggests Simons will either remain with the Portland Trail Blazers beyond his current contract or sign with another team if he enters free agency. Houston may also prioritize other players to fill their roster needs, or Simons' contract situation could make a move to the Rockets financially or logistically unfeasible.
Trade links and live readiness
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