Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Simons suffers an injury that reduces his trade value
Calibrated 100% · raw 240% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/3/2026, 1:17:16 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
4%
Signal Score
+2.4
Opportunity
2.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,069,667
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 240.0¢
Entry: 0-5
—
Resolution
120d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
16 points
This market will resolve to the next team Anfernee Simons officially joins by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If Anfernee Simons does not officially join a new team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If Anfernee Simons joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other". If Anfernee Simons is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by October 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". An official signing announcement prior to the market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the NBA and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Anfernee Simons is under contract with Portland through 2028, so a move to Chicago would require a trade. The market's 3.7% probability reflects the inherent uncertainty of NBA trades and the Blazers' likely reluctance to part with a key scorer. This outlook balances the Bulls' need for backcourt talent against Portland's rebuild timeline.
Chicago needs a dynamic scoring guard, and Simons' shooting and shot creation would complement their core. If Portland pivots to a full rebuild around Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe, they could trade Simons for assets, and the Bulls have enough draft capital and matching salary to compete.
Portland views Simons as a central part of their young core and is unlikely to trade him unless overwhelmed. Other teams can offer superior packages, and Chicago may prioritize different targets or preserve cap flexibility for other moves.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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