Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unforeseen health or legal issues affecting Brnabić
AI updated 7/1/2026, 4:00:48 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
680d
Decision snapshots
3
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Ana Brnabić remains a strong contender for Serbia's next Prime Minister, with a 50% market probability reflecting her political experience and potential continuity with President Vučić. The market is highly sensitive to shifting power dynamics within the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) and broader geopolitical pressures.
Brnabić's pro-EU stance and technocratic background could appeal to both domestic reformists and international partners, securing her nomination if Vučić seeks a more internationally palatable successor. Her prior tenure as PM (2017-2024) demonstrates resilience and adaptability to political pressures, increasing her odds.
Rising nationalist factions within SNS may favor a more hardline candidate, reducing Brnabić's chances if Vučić pivots toward populist policies. Public dissatisfaction with corruption scandals or economic stagnation could trigger a leadership challenge, sidelining her.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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