Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury or illness during the race
Calibrated 100% · raw 4200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 11:09:26 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| fincept | 1 | — | Global only |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 31% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
8%
Signal Score
-42.0
Opportunity
27.3
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Alex Molenaar's performance in the 2026 Tour De France is likely to be influenced by his past performances in the 2022 and 2024 Tour De France
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Alex Molenaar's performance in the 2026 Tour De France is likely to be affected by the weather conditions during the event
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The outcome of the 2026 FIFA World Cup is likely to be influenced by the performance of the African teams, including Ivory Coast and Egypt
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Alex Molenaar's performance in the 2026 Tour De France is likely to be influenced by the overall performance of the Ineos Grenadiers team
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,108,370
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -4200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
37d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed cyclist finishes in the top 3 of the 2026 Tour De France scheduled for July 4, 2026 through July 26, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed cyclist to finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Tour De France per the rules of the UCI, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 Tour De France is cancelled, postponed after August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there are otherwise no declared top 3 finishers declared within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from UCI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Alex Molenaar is a talented domestique and stage hunter, but he has never shown GC contention in Grand Tours. A top-3 finish in the 2026 Tour de France is highly unlikely given the depth of elite GC riders. The 50% market probability appears significantly overpriced.
If Molenaar becomes a protected GC leader for his team and has a breakout season, he could surprise. A route suited to his climbing ability and attrition among favorites might open the door for a podium finish. He is still young and could develop rapidly.
Molenaar has no history of GC performance near the top level, and the Tour de France attracts the best riders like Pogacar, Vingegaard, and Evenepoel. He is typically used as a domestique, and his team is unlikely to prioritize his GC ambitions over overall victory. The 50% probability implies a near-tossup, which drastically overstates his realistic chances.
Trade links and live readiness
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