Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Technical failures in X's post tracking system (Polymarket's primary resolution source)
AI updated 6/30/2026, 2:00:23 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
6%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
-0.5
Opportunity
0.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -50.0¢
Entry: 2-8
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
6
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve according to the number of times White House (@WhiteHouse), posts on X between June 23, 12:00 PM ET and June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market assigns a low 5.50% probability to the White House posting over 200 times on X from June 23-30, 2026, reflecting historical posting patterns and potential constraints on content volume.
A bullish scenario could emerge if the White House increases digital engagement due to major policy announcements, geopolitical tensions, or domestic crises requiring rapid communication, potentially pushing posts above 200.
A bearish outcome is more likely given the White House's recent posting frequency averaging ~50-100 posts per week, with no clear catalyst for a 2-4x surge in output over a short 7-day window.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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