Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Underestimation of automated or scheduled posts
AI updated 6/29/2026, 7:45:15 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
-0.2
Opportunity
0.2
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -20.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve according to the number of times White House (@WhiteHouse), posts on X between June 23, 12:00 PM ET and June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates an extremely low probability (1.20%) that the White House will post between 160-179 times on X from June 23 to June 30, 2026. This suggests overwhelming skepticism about such high posting volume within the specified timeframe.
A bullish scenario would require an unexpected surge in White House communications, such as major policy announcements, crisis responses, or a strategic push for public engagement. Historical data shows rare spikes in posting frequency, but none approaching this range in recent years.
A bearish outcome aligns with the market's low probability, as the White House typically averages far fewer posts (e.g., ~50-100 weekly). Routine operations, staffing levels, and platform policies (e.g., X's restrictions) make 160+ posts in 7 days highly implausible without extraordinary circumstances.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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