Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Authoritarian entrenchment and lack of electoral transparency
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 1:00:19 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
22%
ORYN Consensus
23%
Signal Score
+1.5
Opportunity
1.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,563,857
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 150.0¢
Entry: 18-24
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
5 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Venezuelan presidential election is scheduled by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify, the election must be scheduled to be held before 2030. This market is about whether a date for the next Venezuelan presidential election is announced within this market's timeframe. Whether the election is supposed to take place within this market's timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Venezuela; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market reflects significant uncertainty regarding Venezuela's ability to schedule a presidential election by December 31, 2026, with a low current probability of 23%. The outcome hinges on the government's political will, institutional capacity, and external pressures, particularly from regional actors.
The Venezuelan government, under domestic or international pressure (e.g., from the U.S. or regional blocs like the OAS), could announce a presidential election date by December 31, 2026. This scenario assumes a shift in Maduro's administration strategy or a negotiated transition, leveraging oil revenues or sanctions relief to legitimize the process.
The government may indefinitely delay scheduling the election due to lack of credible opposition, economic instability, or geopolitical isolation. The regime's survival strategy could prioritize maintaining power over institutional processes, especially if external actors (e.g., China, Russia) continue supporting the status quo.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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