Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: unexpected fight dynamics
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 10:17:00 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
9
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Brandon Royval and Lone'er Kavanagh at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for the UFC 329 bout between Brandon Royval and Lone'er Kavanagh indicates a 50% probability of the fight ending by submission. The market is neutral, with no clear directional bias given the even odds.
The fight could end by submission if either fighter demonstrates superior grappling skills, employs dominant ground control, or forces a tapout through relentless pressure. Royval's wrestling background and submission prowess could tilt the odds in his favor.
The fight may not end by submission if both fighters avoid grappling exchanges, preferring striking or if the bout is decided by knockout, decision, or other non-submission methods. Royval's recent striking struggles could reduce submission likelihood.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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