Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unforeseen events reducing Cruz's posting activity
Calibrated 100% · raw 700% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 4:45:21 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
65%
ORYN Consensus
72%
Signal Score
+7.0
Opportunity
5.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 700.0¢
Entry: 62-68
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
2
Price history
5 points
This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between June 26, 12:00 PM ET and July 3, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market assigns a 70% probability that Ted Cruz will post between 100-119 times on X from June 26 to July 3, 2026. This aligns with his historical posting frequency, though variability exists due to external factors.
Ted Cruz has averaged 15-20 posts per day in recent quarters, suggesting he could exceed 100 posts in the 7-day window. His active engagement on X, particularly during election cycles, supports this outcome. A 100-119 post range is plausible given his typical volume.
Cruz's posting frequency may decline due to external commitments (e.g., campaign events, legislative duties) or platform policy changes limiting his activity. Historical outliers (e.g., low-activity weeks) could push his total below 100. Technical issues with the tracker or X could also undercount posts.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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