Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Inaccurate post tracking by XTracker or Polymarket
Calibrated 100% · raw 390% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 4:30:37 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
+3.9
Opportunity
3.6
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 390.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
3
Price history
83 points
This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between July 3, 12:00 PM ET and July 10, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market assigns a 5% probability that Ted Cruz will post 0-19 times on X between July 3-10, 2026. This low probability suggests strong market consensus that Cruz will exceed this threshold.
Cruz may post fewer than 20 times if he reduces social media activity due to legislative sessions, campaign focus, or personal discretion. Historical data shows variability in his posting frequency, though recent trends suggest higher engagement.
Cruz is likely to post more than 19 times given his active presence on X, frequent engagement with political discourse, and consistent posting patterns. His average daily posts often exceed this range, making 0-19 an outlier.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
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