Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Limited current pre-match data here on lineups, form, and injuries reduces precision
Calibrated 100% · raw 300% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/3/2026, 4:39:13 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
28%
ORYN Consensus
25%
Signal Score
-3.0
Opportunity
1.8
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Manifold daily active users is mostly orthogonal to all listed event markets, including the football draw market, except for weak platform-wide attention/liquidity effects.
correlates · strength 60%
Putin-out and Hormuz/oil markets may share a geopolitical-risk theme via global security shocks, but this remains indirect and much weaker than the internal linkage among the energy/shipping markets.
correlates · strength 60%
No strong direct relationship: a Swedish football draw market is largely independent of geopolitical leadership and platform-growth markets, with at most weak shared sensitivity to broad risk sentiment.
correlates · strength 60%
Weak macro linkage to oil/Strait of Hormuz markets: severe Gulf disruption that drives energy-price volatility could marginally affect football markets through background market-wide risk appetite, but not match outcome fundamentals.
correlates · strength 60%
Crude oil and Strait of Hormuz transit markets are positively related to each other around Middle East shipping disruption themes, forming a separate cluster from the football draw market.
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,179,209
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -300.0¢
Entry: 25-31
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
3 points
In the upcoming game, scheduled for July 4, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market asks whether Degerfors IF and Malmo FF will be level after 90 minutes plus stoppage time on July 4, 2026. A draw is plausible in football generally, but the listed 28% implies the market sees Malmo as materially stronger; my estimate is slightly lower because the matchup appears more likely to resolve to a Malmo win than an evenly balanced result.
Draws are common enough in soccer that even weaker sides can hold stronger opponents through low-tempo play, defensive structure, and variance in finishing. If Degerfors can suppress chance quality, benefit from home conditions, or if Malmo rotates and under-converts, a 0-0 or 1-1 result becomes quite live.
Malmo FF is typically one of the stronger Swedish sides, so talent disparity and squad depth likely push this fixture away from the draw state and toward an away win. When stronger teams score first, draw probability often collapses because the weaker side must open up, increasing the chance of a second decisive goal rather than an equal stalemate.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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