Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unexpected acquittal due to legal technicalities or jury nullification
AI updated 7/2/2026, 9:50:28 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
100%
ORYN Consensus
100%
Signal Score
-0.1
Opportunity
0.1
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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SBF conviction may not be directly related to the box office performance of 'Taylor Swift: Eras Tour' and 'Barbie', but it could be a factor in market sentiment, potentially affecting the likelihood of 'Taylor Swift: Eras Tour' having a bigger opening weekend
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -5.0¢
Entry: 97-100
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
90 points
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market overwhelmingly prices in a high probability of Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) being convicted of a felony before the end of 2024, reflecting strong confidence in the legal proceedings' outcome based on existing evidence and precedents.
SBF's conviction could lead to significant legal precedents in crypto regulation, potentially accelerating institutional adoption by reducing perceived fraud risk. A felony conviction may also strengthen U.S. enforcement actions against crypto firms, shaping future industry compliance standards.
A felony conviction for SBF could trigger broader market distrust in crypto exchanges, leading to liquidity crises or regulatory crackdowns that suppress innovation. Additionally, prolonged legal battles or appeals might delay finality, prolonging uncertainty in the sector.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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