Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Inaccurate post tracking by the resolution source (XTracker)
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 4:15:50 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 44% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
44%
ORYN Consensus
42%
Signal Score
-2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,804,478
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -200.0¢
Entry: 41-47
—
Resolution
10d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve according to the number of times NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani (@NYCMayor), posts on X between July 3, 12:00 PM ET and July 10, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a 44% probability that NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani will post between 140-159 times on X from July 3 to July 10, 2026. This suggests moderate skepticism about high-frequency posting during the specified period.
Mayor Mamdani may post frequently due to active policy announcements, public engagement, or campaigning ahead of elections, pushing the total toward the upper end of the range. Historical trends show some officials average 15-20 posts daily, which could accumulate to the target range over 7 days.
The Mayor's posting frequency may decline due to administrative duties, controversies, or reduced social media activity, resulting in fewer than 140 posts. Recent trends or platform algorithm changes could also limit visibility and posting activity.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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