Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Earnings miss or guidance downgrade
Calibrated 100% · raw 6050% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:38:23 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
25%
ORYN Consensus
85%
Signal Score
+60.5
Opportunity
45.4
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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OpenAI
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 6050.0¢
Entry: 22-28
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
11
Price history
32 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the NVIDIA (NVDA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for NVIDIA (NVDA) closing above $195 by June 22 shows a 40.1% probability, indicating bearish sentiment. Technical resistance and recent volatility in AI-related stocks contribute to this outlook.
NVIDIA could surpass $195 if strong earnings guidance or AI demand growth triggers a momentum rally. Positive macroeconomic data or a broader tech sector rebound may also push prices higher. Historical trends suggest potential for short-term spikes.
NVIDIA may fail to close above $195 due to profit-taking after recent gains or regulatory concerns around AI monopolies. A broader market correction or weak earnings outlook could weigh on the stock. Technical resistance at $195 remains a key hurdle.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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