Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Game postponement or cancellation, potentially leading to a 50-50 resolution as per market rules
AI updated 6/30/2026, 7:02:26 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| gemini | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 46% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
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Domain Heterogeneity: The markets encompass widely divergent subject matters, including individual sports performance, geopolitical stability, technology platform growth, and global commodity prices.
correlates · strength 60%
Independent Causal Factors: The outcomes of these markets are driven by distinct and unrelated sets of variables, precluding direct predictive correlation between the Daylen Lile market and the others.
correlates · strength 60%
Varied Forecasting Methodologies: Each market requires specialized data sources and analytical frameworks, reflecting the absence of a common underlying predictive model or expertise domain.
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,834,851
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
13h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
In the upcoming MLB game between the Washington Nationals and Boston Red Sox, scheduled for June 30 at 7:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Daylen Lile records more than 1.5 home runs during the game. This market will resolve to "Under" if Daylen Lile records less than 1.5 home runs during the game. The entire game including all extra innings will be considered. If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not take the field at any point, the market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This prediction market focuses on Daylen Lile's home run total in a single MLB game, with an Over/Under set at 1.5. Statistically, hitting two or more home runs in a single game is an extremely rare feat for any MLB player. The market's current probability of 50% appears to significantly overstate the likelihood of the 'Over' outcome.
For the 'Over' to resolve, Daylen Lile would need to hit two or more home runs in the specified game, which is a highly improbable event for any individual player. This scenario would likely require exceptional individual performance, favorable pitching matchups throughout the game, and potentially advantageous ballpark or weather conditions. Such an outcome is a significant statistical anomaly.
The 'Under' case, meaning Lile hits zero or one home run, is the overwhelmingly probable outcome for any MLB player in a single game. Most players do not hit a home run in the majority of their games, and multi-homer games are rare career highlights. Factors supporting 'Under' include typical MLB pitching effectiveness, the inherent difficulty of hitting home runs, and the high statistical baseline for 0 or 1 home run games.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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