Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Late lineup changes due to injuries or rest
Calibrated 100% · raw 4000% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 11:03:48 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
10%
Signal Score
-40.0
Opportunity
26.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Toronto Blue Jays winning after 5 innings is related to markets with similar time-sensitive and low-probability outcomes, such as Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?, Will Manifold.love reach 1000 daily active users (7d average) by Feb 14, 2024?, and Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,445,122
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -4000.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
In the upcoming MLB game between the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners, scheduled for July 3 at 10:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Toronto Blue Jays" if the Toronto Blue Jays is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Seattle Mariners" if the Seattle Mariners is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market is a 50-50 toss-up on whether the Blue Jays will lead the Mariners after 5 innings in their July 3 matchup. Pricing reflects a balanced assessment with no clear edge, consistent with the game's perceived evenness. The draw possibility slightly reduces the binary resolution probability.
If the Blue Jays face a struggling starting pitcher or catch an early lead against a weaker bullpen, they could easily hold through 5 innings. Their offense has shown ability to score early on the road, and the Mariners' home advantage may not offset a hot start.
The Mariners at home often gain early momentum, and if their starter outperforms the Blue Jays' pitcher, Seattle could lead after 5. A slow start by Toronto's bats or a quick deficit could make a comeback within 5 innings unlikely.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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