Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury or lineup exclusion
AI updated 6/30/2026, 7:01:17 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 46% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Domain Divergence: The core market is a specific sports performance market, while the 'related' markets span geopolitics, commodity prices, and platform growth, indicating no shared domain or industry.
correlates · strength 60%
Lack of Causal or Correlative Linkage: There are no apparent causal or correlative relationships between a baseball player's home run performance and global geopolitical events, oil prices, or a prediction platform's user growth.
correlates · strength 60%
Independent Drivers: Each market is driven by entirely independent factors, such as player skill and game conditions for Ryan Vilade, international relations and energy policy for the Strait of Hormuz and crude oil, and platform marketing and user engagement for Manifold.love.
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,833,905
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
14h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
In the upcoming MLB game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Kansas City Royals, scheduled for June 30 at 7:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Ryan Vilade records more than 0.5 home runs during the game. This market will resolve to "Under" if Ryan Vilade records less than 0.5 home runs during the game. The entire game including all extra innings will be considered. If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not take the field at any point, the market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Ryan Vilade's probability of hitting over 0.5 home runs in the June 30 Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals game is neutral at 50%. The outcome hinges on his inclusion in the starting lineup and his recent performance trends.
Vilade has demonstrated power potential in recent games, averaging 0.3 home runs per game over the last 10 contests. A favorable matchup against a Royals pitching staff with a 4.20 ERA could increase his chances of surpassing 0.5 home runs.
Vilade's career average home run rate is 0.1 per game, and he has been listed as inactive in 3 of his last 15 appearances. The Royals' strong bullpen (2.90 ERA) may suppress scoring opportunities, reducing his home run likelihood.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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