Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Extreme weather could alter the game state unpredictably
Calibrated 100% · raw 3200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/3/2026, 1:53:49 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| fincept | 1 | — | Global only |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
18%
Signal Score
-32.0
Opportunity
9.6
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: Tied after 5 innings? is related to markets that predict uncertainty, close competition, or unexpected outcomes, such as: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?, Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?, Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?, and Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?.
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,462,393
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -3200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
In the upcoming MLB game between the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies, scheduled for July 3 at 8:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants" if the San Francisco Giants is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Colorado Rockies" if the Colorado Rockies is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market asks whether the July 3 MLB game between the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies will be tied after 5 innings, currently priced at 50%. Without specific starting pitcher or lineup information, the implied probability appears significantly elevated relative to historical tie rates, which average around 15-20% through five innings in MLB. The high-scoring environment of Coors Field may further reduce the likelihood of a deadlock.
Strong offensive matchups on both sides could lead to a close, low-scoring affair where neither team gains a multi-run advantage early. If both starters are effective but not dominant, the game could easily remain tied through five frames, especially if run-scoring opportunities are squandered.
Coors Field inflates scoring, making ties less probable than at other parks, and even average lineups can break open a game quickly. Historically, MLB games are tied after five innings only ~15-20% of the time, suggesting the 50% market price is far too high. Any competent pitching or relief appearance on either side likely produces a one-sided lead.
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