Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Late pitching change materially shifting the run outlook
AI updated 7/3/2026, 3:39:38 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
51%
Signal Score
+1.0
Opportunity
0.6
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Cross-market dependency is minimal: outcomes in the baseball total will not materially update probabilities for Hormuz traffic, oil prices, Putin’s presidency, or Manifold DAU, and vice versa.
correlates · strength 60%
Among the listed related markets, the strongest internal cluster is Hormuz traffic normalcy <-> 40 ships transit Hormuz <-> crude oil $60, while Padres vs. Dodgers O/U 10.5 sits largely isolated from that cluster.
correlates · strength 60%
Energy/geopolitics linkage: Strait of Hormuz traffic and crude oil markets are related to each other, but have no meaningful direct causal connection to Padres vs. Dodgers O/U 10.5 beyond broad market-wide risk sentiment.
correlates · strength 60%
Putin/Russia leadership markets may weakly co-move with oil and shipping-risk markets through geopolitical escalation channels, but are essentially unrelated to a single MLB game total.
correlates · strength 60%
Platform-growth market (Manifold.love DAU) is orthogonal to the MLB total; any relationship is limited to shared exchange/user-attention effects rather than underlying fundamentals.
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,505,203
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 100.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers, scheduled for July 2 at 10:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers combine to score 11 or more runs in this game. If the combined total is less than 11, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
A 10.5 total in a Padres-Dodgers game is a high but plausible MLB number, and a 50% market price suggests balanced uncertainty rather than a clear edge. The most important determinants are the announced starting pitchers, bullpen freshness, and run environment at Dodger Stadium on game day.
The over is live if either team starts a back-end arm, uses a taxed bullpen, or faces favorable hitting conditions like warm weather and wind aiding carry. Both lineups have enough top-end offensive talent that a few early baserunners or one crooked inning can push this total into double digits quickly.
An under case is straightforward if frontline starters go deep or if both managers can deploy rested high-leverage relievers by the middle innings. Even strong lineups can stall with runners stranded, and 10.5 leaves limited room for error because a 5-5 game still loses the over.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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