Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Weather conditions or game postponement could delay resolution
Calibrated 100% · raw 2200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/3/2026, 4:19:44 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
28%
Signal Score
-22.0
Opportunity
16.5
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
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r1: The Padres spread market is a sports betting proposition unrelated to geopolitical or economic events, so it has no direct relationship with the Strait of Hormuz traffic, Putin's presidency, Manifold.love's user growth, or crude oil prices.
correlates · strength 60%
r2: Indirectly, all listed markets are prediction markets on distinct topics (sports, geopolitics, tech, commodities), but they share no causal or correlational links; their outcomes are independent.
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,495,155
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -2200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers, scheduled for July 2 at 10:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game by 4 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Los Angeles Dodgers". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Los Angeles Dodgers". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This prediction market asks whether the San Diego Padres will beat the Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 or more runs on July 2, 2026. The market is currently priced at 50%, which appears to significantly overestimate the probability of a 3.5-run spread being covered in a single MLB game.
The Padres have a strong lineup capable of explosive offensive performances, and if their starting pitcher dominates while the offense clicks, a blowout win is possible. Historical MLB data shows that favorites covering large spreads occurs roughly 25-30% of the time, and the Padres' home-field advantage at Petco Park could contribute to a dominant performance.
Covering a 3.5-run spread in MLB is inherently difficult, as even strong teams rarely win by large margins consistently. The Dodgers have one of the deepest rosters in baseball and are unlikely to be blown out, making a 4+ run Padres victory statistically unlikely regardless of the matchup.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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