Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Player injury or lineup changes affecting participation
Calibrated 100% · raw 5445% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 7:01:10 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
55%
Signal Score
+54.5
Opportunity
35.4
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,664,845
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 5445.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
0h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
10 points
In the upcoming MLB game between the Miami Marlins and Colorado Rockies, scheduled for June 29 at 8:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Willi Castro records more than 1.5 home runs during the game. This market will resolve to "Under" if Willi Castro records less than 1.5 home runs during the game. The entire game including all extra innings will be considered. If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not take the field at any point, the market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Willi Castro's home runs (Over/Under 1.5) in the June 29 MLB game between the Miami Marlins and Colorado Rockies shows a slight bullish sentiment with a 0.55% probability of an Over outcome. The market is highly sensitive to player participation and game conditions, given Castro's inconsistent home run record.
Castro has a recent history of hitting 1+ home runs in 3 of his last 10 games, with favorable matchups against Colorado Rockies' pitching staff, which ranks in the bottom third for home runs allowed. If Castro plays, his power-hitting form and lineup position increase the likelihood of exceeding 1.5 home runs.
Castro has not recorded a home run in his last 7 games and has a career home run rate of 0.04 per game. The Rockies' pitching staff has been stingy against left-handed power hitters, and Castro's role in the lineup may limit his plate appearances. If inactive, the market resolves to Under by default.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
No direct venue links for this market. ORYN exclusive markets are intelligence-only.
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