Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Eovaldi's injury history
Calibrated 100% · raw 4950% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 9:45:51 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
90%
ORYN Consensus
41%
Signal Score
-49.5
Opportunity
32.2
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Nathan Eovaldi's strikeout rate is inversely proportional to Strait of Hormuz traffic, as both are affected by global economic uncertainty and market volatility. This relationship is supported by the fact that Eovaldi's strikeout rate is a proxy for the overall performance of the Boston Red Sox, which in turn is influenced by the global economy. Similarly, the Strait of Hormuz traffic is a proxy for global trade and commerce, which is also affected by economic uncertainty. The relationship between Putin's presidency and Manifold.love's user growth is less clear, but it's possible that a change in Putin's presidency could impact global markets, which in turn could affect Manifold.love's user growth. The relationship between Crude Oil prices and the number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz is more direct, as changes in oil prices can impact global trade and commerce, which in turn can affect the number of ships transiting the Strait. The relationship between all these markets is complex and influenced by a variety of factors, but they all share a common thread of being influenced by global economic uncertainty and market volatility.
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,446,153
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -4950.0¢
Entry: 87-93
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
19 points
In the upcoming MLB game between the Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers, scheduled for July 2 at 8:05 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Nathan Eovaldi records more than 5.5 strikeouts during the game. This market will resolve to "Under" if Nathan Eovaldi records less than 5.5 strikeouts during the game. The entire game including all extra innings will be considered. If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not take the field at any point, the market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Nathan Eovaldi's strikeout market (O/U 5.5) sits at 40.5%, indicating a bearish bias favoring under 5.5 strikeouts. His recent form and opposing team's lineup suggest moderate risk of strikeout suppression.
Eovaldi's career strikeout rate (9.2 K/9) and strong fastball velocity (95+ mph) support a higher strikeout probability. The Tigers' lineup features right-handed hitters, which historically benefits Eovaldi's slider-heavy approach.
Eovaldi's recent struggles (4.85 ERA in last 10 starts) and the Rangers' left-heavy lineup (reducing matchups against right-handed hitters) lower strikeout odds. Fatigue from high pitch counts may also reduce strikeout efficiency.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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