Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions to temperature records post-resolution window
AI updated 6/29/2026, 12:15:45 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.3
Opportunity
0.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,330,093
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 35.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
14 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The probability of Shanghai's lowest temperature reaching 27°C on June 30, 2026, is extremely low at 0.90%, based on historical climate data and seasonal norms. The resolution depends on a single-day extreme heat event, which is statistically uncommon for the region during late June.
A rare but plausible heatwave could push temperatures to 27°C, driven by anomalous atmospheric conditions such as a strong subtropical ridge or urban heat island effects in Shanghai. Climate change trends may marginally increase the likelihood of extreme temperatures, though not enough to significantly alter the baseline probability.
Historical data shows Shanghai's average lowest temperatures in late June range between 22-24°C, with extreme highs rarely exceeding 26°C. The absence of a prolonged heatwave forecast for the region in early June 2026 further reduces the probability. The resolution source's precision to whole degrees Celsius also limits the likelihood of hitting the exact 27°C threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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