Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Revisions to historical temperature data after market resolution
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 10:00:53 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
7%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
-2.0
Opportunity
1.9
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,075,036
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -200.0¢
Entry: 4-10
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
5 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The probability of Seoul's lowest temperature reaching 23°C on June 30, 2026, is very low at 4.50%, based on historical climate data and seasonal norms for late June. Historical records indicate that temperatures in Seoul typically peak in the low 20s°C during this period, with 23°C being an outlier.
A bullish scenario could materialize if an extreme heatwave, such as an anomalous high-pressure system or a tropical cyclone, pushes temperatures significantly above seasonal averages. Climate change trends may also marginally increase the likelihood of such extreme temperatures.
The bearish case is strong given Seoul's historical climate data, which rarely records temperatures as high as 23°C in late June. The average low temperature for late June is around 18-20°C, making 23°C highly improbable without extraordinary weather conditions.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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