This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground post-resolution cutoff
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:45:14 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
10%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
-5.0
Opportunity
4.8
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market indicates a low 10% probability that Seoul's lowest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 24°C. Historical June lows in Seoul typically range between 15°C and 20°C, making 24°C an extreme outlier.
A bullish scenario could involve an unprecedented heatwave driven by a strong high-pressure system, possibly exacerbated by urban heat island effects or climate change trends. Unusual atmospheric patterns, such as a persistent subtropical ridge, might push temperatures to record highs.
A bearish outcome reflects Seoul's historical climate data, where June lows rarely exceed 20°C. Factors like monsoon influences, cloud cover, or cooler-than-average ocean currents could suppress temperatures further, making 24°C highly unlikely.
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Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 10% while ORYN AI estimates 5%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
