Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground post-resolution cutoff
Calibrated 100% · raw 500% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:45:14 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
10%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
-5.0
Opportunity
4.8
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -500.0¢
Entry: 7-13
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a low 10% probability that Seoul's lowest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 24°C. Historical June lows in Seoul typically range between 15°C and 20°C, making 24°C an extreme outlier.
A bullish scenario could involve an unprecedented heatwave driven by a strong high-pressure system, possibly exacerbated by urban heat island effects or climate change trends. Unusual atmospheric patterns, such as a persistent subtropical ridge, might push temperatures to record highs.
A bearish outcome reflects Seoul's historical climate data, where June lows rarely exceed 20°C. Factors like monsoon influences, cloud cover, or cooler-than-average ocean currents could suppress temperatures further, making 24°C highly unlikely.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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