This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Climate data revisions post-resolution deadline
AI updated 6/27/2026, 5:16:10 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
+0.6
Opportunity
0.5
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market implies a low probability (2.5%) that Seoul's lowest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 23°C, reflecting historical climate norms where such temperatures are rare for the date. Historical data from Incheon International Airport shows June daily lows typically range between 15-20°C.
A bullish outcome could materialize if an unprecedented heatwave affects the Korean Peninsula in late June 2026, driven by strong high-pressure systems, early monsoon delays, or climate anomalies like El Niño. Urban heat island effects in Seoul could also marginally elevate temperatures.
A bearish outcome is more likely given Seoul's historical climate patterns, with June lows rarely exceeding 22°C. Persistent cloud cover, monsoon rains, or unseasonable cool air masses from Siberia could suppress temperatures below 23°C.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your forecast thesis.
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 1.9% while ORYN AI estimates 2.5%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
