This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: data_revision_delays
AI updated 6/27/2026, 5:16:01 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.1
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market assesses whether the lowest temperature in Seoul on June 29, 2026, will reach 22°C. Historical data for late June in Seoul suggests this is highly unlikely, with typical lows ranging between 18-20°C.
A bullish outcome could materialize if an unprecedented heatwave or anomalous weather pattern elevates nighttime temperatures to 22°C or higher. Urban heat island effects or localized microclimates in Seoul might contribute to such an outcome.
The bear case is supported by Seoul's historical climate data, which rarely records lows of 22°C in late June. Global climate trends suggest increasing temperatures, but late June lows in Seoul typically remain below 21°C.
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Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 1.9% while ORYN AI estimates 2%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
