This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground post-resolution
AI updated 6/27/2026, 5:15:55 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
-0.3
Opportunity
0.2
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market assesses a low probability (2.10%) that Seoul's lowest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 19°C. Historical data and seasonal trends suggest this outcome is highly unlikely.
A strong high-pressure system or unusual warm air advection from the continent could push temperatures to 19°C, especially if cloud cover persists overnight. Late-season heatwaves or urban heat island effects might also contribute.
Climatologically, late June in Seoul typically sees lows around 15-17°C, making 19°C an extreme outlier. Persistent cloud cover, rain, or cold air from the Yellow Sea would suppress temperatures.
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Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 2.4% while ORYN AI estimates 2.1%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
