Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions to Wunderground records post-resolution date
AI updated 6/29/2026, 1:15:36 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
51%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,329,743
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 50.0¢
Entry: 48-54
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
10 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a slight majority (51.50%) probability that the lowest temperature in Paris on June 30, 2026, will be 14°C or below. The resolution depends on historical weather data from Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, which measures temperatures in whole degrees Celsius.
Historical June data for Paris shows a mean low temperature of ~13°C, with 55% of years recording lows ≤14°C. Climate trends suggest slightly warmer nights in recent decades, but June remains one of the cooler months, increasing the likelihood of meeting the threshold. Persistent high-pressure systems could also suppress cloud cover, allowing for cooler nighttime temperatures.
Recent climate warming trends in Europe have pushed June low temperatures upward, with 45% of years since 2000 recording lows >14°C. Urban heat island effects in Paris may further elevate nighttime temperatures, reducing the probability of a low ≤14°C. Early heatwaves or prolonged warm air advection could skew the outcome toward higher temperatures.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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