This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revision risks from Wunderground
AI updated 6/27/2026, 6:15:58 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
-0.1
Opportunity
0.1
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market assigns a 0.60% probability to Paris experiencing a low temperature of 21°C on June 29, 2026, which is significantly below historical averages for late June. Such a temperature would be exceptionally high for the date, requiring extreme weather conditions.
A persistent high-pressure system over Europe could drive an early heatwave, with tropical air masses pushing temperatures to unprecedented levels for late June. Climate change may also amplify the likelihood of such extreme heat events in the region.
Historical climate data for Paris in late June shows average lows around 14-16°C, with 21°C being a rare outlier. The market’s low probability reflects the unlikelihood of such extreme warmth, given seasonal norms and typical weather patterns.
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Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.8% while ORYN AI estimates 0.6%.
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