Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: revisions to historical temperature data
AI updated 6/28/2026, 3:00:54 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
28%
ORYN Consensus
28%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,137,924
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 25-31
—
Resolution
18h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a 27.5% probability that New York City's lowest temperature on June 29, 2026, will fall within the 66-67°F range at LaGuardia Airport. Historical data and seasonal trends suggest this outcome is plausible but not highly likely.
A bullish scenario could emerge if an early-season heatwave persists into late June, with urban heat island effects in NYC pushing temperatures toward the upper end of the range. Additionally, persistent high-pressure systems or warm air advection from the south could elevate overnight lows.
A bearish outcome is more probable given typical late-June climatology in NYC, where overnight lows rarely exceed 65°F. Persistent cloud cover, maritime influence, or unseasonable cold fronts could suppress temperatures below the target range. Uncertainty in long-range forecasting further reduces confidence.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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