Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: unexpected_weather_anomalies
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 2:00:19 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
10%
ORYN Consensus
8%
Signal Score
-1.5
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
964,408
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -150.0¢
Entry: 6-12
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The probability of New York City's lowest temperature on June 29, 2026, falling within the 60-61°F range at LaGuardia Airport is currently at 9.50%. This low probability suggests skepticism about such a narrow temperature range occurring during late June in NYC.
A bullish outcome could materialize if an unusual cold front or weather anomaly suppresses temperatures in late June, aligning with the 60-61°F range. Historical data shows NYC's average low in late June is around 65-70°F, but rare weather patterns could justify this scenario.
The bear case is stronger given NYC's typical late June low temperatures averaging 65-70°F, with extreme lows rarely dipping below 60°F. The narrow 60-61°F range is statistically unlikely, and historical trends favor higher temperatures during this period.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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