This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Measurement errors or revisions in Wunderground data post-resolution
AI updated 6/27/2026, 12:15:48 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market reflects an extremely low probability (0.55%) that New York City's lowest temperature on June 27, 2026, will fall within the 64-65°F range at LaGuardia Airport. Historical June lows in NYC rarely approach this threshold.
A rare heatwave or atmospheric anomaly could push overnight lows into the 64-65°F range, particularly if humidity and cloud cover prevent radiational cooling. Climate trends suggest slightly warmer nights, though such precision remains unlikely.
June lows in NYC typically range between 60-63°F, with 64°F+ being exceptionally rare. The market's near-zero probability aligns with historical climatology, making the 64-65°F range highly improbable without extraordinary conditions.
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Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 27? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.6% while ORYN AI estimates 0.6%.
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