Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions to historical temperature records post-resolution deadline
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 5:45:20 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
84%
ORYN Consensus
85%
Signal Score
+1.5
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,200,973
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 150.0¢
Entry: 80-86
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts an 83.50% probability that Miami's lowest temperature on June 28, 2026, will fall within the 82-83°F range. Historical climate data and seasonal trends strongly favor this outcome, given Miami's typical June weather patterns.
Miami's average low temperature in late June is around 77-79°F, but heatwaves or urban heat island effects could push the low into the 82-83°F range. Recent years have seen increasing nighttime temperatures due to climate change, supporting this scenario.
Cooler-than-average conditions, cloud cover, or rainfall could suppress overnight temperatures below 82°F. Unusual weather patterns, such as a cold front or marine layer influence, might also prevent the low from reaching this range.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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