This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Climate change may slightly increase baseline temperatures, but not enough to make 18°C likely
AI updated 6/27/2026, 2:30:29 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
-0.1
Opportunity
0.1
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market predicts a low probability (1.10%) that London's lowest temperature on June 27, 2026, will reach 18°C. Historical climate data suggests this is highly unlikely given London's typical June temperatures.
If a heatwave occurs in late June 2026, London could record an unusually high minimum temperature of 18°C. Unseasonably warm air masses or persistent high-pressure systems could drive temperatures up, though this would require exceptional meteorological conditions.
London's average minimum temperature in late June is around 12-14°C, making 18°C improbable. Cooler oceanic influences, cloud cover, or rain would suppress temperatures, aligning with historical norms.
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Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 27? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 1.1% while ORYN AI estimates 1%.
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