Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: data revision after initial publication
AI updated 6/27/2026, 1:30:58 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 24% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
6%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
-0.5
Opportunity
0.5
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -50.0¢
Entry: 2-8
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
5
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assigns a 5% probability to the lowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 27, 2026, being 25°C or higher. Historical climate data suggests this is highly unlikely, given June's typical temperature ranges.
Unusually high humidity and urban heat island effects could push nighttime temperatures to 25°C, especially if a tropical system or persistent high-pressure system traps heat over the city. Late-season heatwaves or localized microclimatic factors may contribute.
June is typically warm but not extreme in Hong Kong, with historical lows rarely exceeding 24°C. Climate trends show slight cooling in early summer months, reducing the likelihood of such high minima. Data revisions are unlikely to alter the outcome significantly.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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