This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Key risk: data revision after initial publication
AI updated 6/27/2026, 1:30:58 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Crowd Consensus
6%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
-0.5
Opportunity
0.5
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market assigns a 5% probability to the lowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 27, 2026, being 25°C or higher. Historical climate data suggests this is highly unlikely, given June's typical temperature ranges.
Unusually high humidity and urban heat island effects could push nighttime temperatures to 25°C, especially if a tropical system or persistent high-pressure system traps heat over the city. Late-season heatwaves or localized microclimatic factors may contribute.
June is typically warm but not extreme in Hong Kong, with historical lows rarely exceeding 24°C. Climate trends show slight cooling in early summer months, reducing the likelihood of such high minima. Data revisions are unlikely to alter the outcome significantly.
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Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 27? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 5.5% while ORYN AI estimates 5%.
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