Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Climate data revisions post-resolution (excluded per market rules)
Calibrated 100% · raw 1100% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 5:15:22 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
46%
ORYN Consensus
35%
Signal Score
-11.0
Opportunity
9.3
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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correlated market
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Geopolitical Tensions (Strait of Hormuz)
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Commodity Price Movements (Crude Oil)
correlates · strength 60%
Regional Weather Patterns
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -1100.0¢
Entry: 43-49
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
7
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market suggests a 35% chance that the lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 1, 2026, will reach 28°C. Historical climate data and seasonal trends indicate this is unlikely, given Hong Kong's typical July temperatures and recent warming patterns.
A bullish outlook could arise if an extreme heatwave develops in late June, persisting into July, driven by strong subtropical high pressure and El Niño conditions. Urban heat island effects in Hong Kong may also amplify temperatures beyond historical averages.
The bear case hinges on typical monsoon patterns and cloud cover suppressing extreme heat, keeping the lowest temperature below 28°C. La Niña conditions or unexpected weather anomalies could also reduce peak temperatures.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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