Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Match cancellation or delays beyond 7 days
AI updated 6/30/2026, 12:48:50 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 47% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,968,848
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
0h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market is about whether both teams slay at least one elemental dragon during Game 2. In League of Legends, elemental dragons (Infernal, Mountain, Ocean, Hextech, Chemtech, and Cloud) spawn in the dragon pit starting at 5:00 game time. After being slain, the next dragon spawns 5 minutes later. Once a team claims the Dragon Soul (by slaying four dragons), all subsequent dragon spawns become Elder Dragons. This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Valerion and ALMO Players each slay at least one elemental dragon during Game 2. This market will resolve to "No" if either team (or both teams) does not slay any elemental dragon during Game 2. Only elemental dragons count toward this market — Elder Dragon kills do not count. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 2 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 2 is not played because the series result has already been determined (e.g., a team clinches the series before Game 2 is needed), this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 2 begins but is not completed and ends via surrender, this market will resolve based on whether both teams had slain at least one elemental dragon prior to stoppage. If the condition was not met, this market will resolve to "No". If Game 2 is remade, resolution will be based on the remade game only. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for 'Game 2: Both Teams Slay a Dragon?' is currently at 50% probability, reflecting high uncertainty due to the binary nature of the outcome and potential resolution ambiguities. The resolution hinges on both teams slaying at least one elemental dragon, with multiple edge cases (e.g., match cancellation, forfeiture) defaulting to a 50-50 split.
The bull case assumes both teams will actively prioritize dragon objectives, leading to at least one slain elemental dragon per team. This could occur if the match is competitive, teams are evenly matched, or if early-game skirmishes force both sides to contest dragons. High dragon control stats in recent games or meta shifts favoring early objective plays could also support this outcome.
The bear case suggests either one or both teams fail to slay any elemental dragons, possibly due to a lopsided matchup, early surrender, or tactical avoidance of dragon fights. A dominant early-game lead by one team could reduce dragon contests, or a meta where teams focus on other objectives (e.g., Baron, towers) might suppress dragon slays. Additionally, poor team coordination or misplays could result in zero dragon kills.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
No direct venue links for this market. ORYN exclusive markets are intelligence-only.
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