Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: match_cancellation_or_delay
AI updated 6/30/2026, 8:01:01 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
51%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,117,436
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 50.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
0h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
4 points
This market is about whether both teams slay at least one elemental dragon during Game 1. In League of Legends, elemental dragons (Infernal, Mountain, Ocean, Hextech, Chemtech, and Cloud) spawn in the dragon pit starting at 5:00 game time. After being slain, the next dragon spawns 5 minutes later. Once a team claims the Dragon Soul (by slaying four dragons), all subsequent dragon spawns become Elder Dragons. This market will resolve to "Yes" if both VfB eSports and Team Orange Gaming each slay at least one elemental dragon during Game 1. This market will resolve to "No" if either team (or both teams) does not slay any elemental dragon during Game 1. Only elemental dragons count toward this market — Elder Dragon kills do not count. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 is not played because the series result has already been determined (e.g., a team clinches the series before Game 1 is needed), this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 begins but is not completed and ends via surrender, this market will resolve based on whether both teams had slain at least one elemental dragon prior to stoppage. If the condition was not met, this market will resolve to "No". If Game 1 is remade, resolution will be based on the remade game only. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market reflects a near-even split on whether both VfB eSports and Team Orange Gaming will slay at least one elemental dragon in Game 1 of their series. The 50.50% probability suggests no clear consensus, likely due to limited available data or high uncertainty in team performance dynamics.
Both teams may prioritize early dragon objectives to gain a strategic advantage, especially if they are evenly matched. A high tempo game with frequent skirmishes around the dragon pit could lead to multiple elemental dragon kills for both sides. If teams have strong junglers or coordinated playstyles, the probability of both slaying dragons increases.
One or both teams may underperform in securing dragons due to poor early game control or unfavorable matchups. A low tempo game with passive playstyles or focus on other objectives (e.g., towers, inhibitors) could result in fewer dragon kills. If the game is decided early (e.g., snowballing), teams may neglect dragon objectives.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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